Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Kawasaki Redux - another side of the Truemor story

From Toronto Globe and Mail technology writer Matthew Ingram: Kawasaki: How I wasted $12,107 on Truemors �

I agree with Michael about how inconsequential Truemors appears to be, but I think Guy's new contrarian mantra is worth considering.

"No Plan, No Capital,No Model....No Problem"

The opportunity to create a viral microenterprise has never before been so attractive For example,on the heels of the public launch of the Facebook Platform, accompanied by such heavy weight application development partners as Amazon and Microsoft, over 42,000 wannabe's have signed on as application developers- a list that is growing bhy over 10% PER DAY!

Like Truemors they may find it possible to launch an application on the cheap and expect the viral distribution channel of Facebook to give them orbital velocity, and, using Guy's Truemors numbers - the expecations that anyone of these could gain initial success and market visibility for $12,107 is going to fuel a land grab.

But let's say that only 1% of these startups succeed - the cost of supporting all the losers amounts to $484,500,000 -- not a great ROI.

I think this exploding cadre of application developers on Facebook and now on the new iPhone Platform will generate some real winners - but sorting through 40,000 business models at the startup level is not the job of professional investors so, family, friends and angels will pony up the early funding for these nascent products and companies and generally lose their shirts.

1 comment:

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